Eskom, South Africa’s power utility, has issued a warning that stage 8 load shedding may be implemented during the upcoming winter season if efforts to minimize unplanned losses fail. Eskom’s interim group CEO, Calib Cassim, explained that the reduced generation capacity of 3000MW compared to last year’s winter season, caused by breakdowns at three units at Kusile and one unit at Koeberg, will make this year’s winter period challenging.
The primary goal for Eskom is to keep the unplanned loss factor below 15000MW, which corresponds to lower levels of load shedding during peak times throughout the day. However, maintaining this level has been a struggle, and if the Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF) exceeds 18000, the likelihood of stage 8 load shedding during peak hours becomes extremely high.
Cassim reassured the public that a national blackout is unlikely due to interventions and control mechanisms in place. Load shedding, while inconvenient, is necessary to maintain the stability of the power system and avoid a complete blackout. Eskom’s chief executive for transmission, Segomoco Scheppers, explained that they are considering three scenarios for this winter’s outlook.
The best-case scenario is to have 15000MW, resulting in load shedding ranging from stage 3 to stage 5 until the end of August. However, if there are 18000MW of breakdowns, stage 7 or stage 8 load shedding will be necessary, particularly in July and August when electricity demand is higher. Stage 8 load shedding would mean 12 hours without electricity each day.
Eskom emphasized that the 18000MW scenario leading to stage 8 load shedding is an extreme worst-case scenario they are working tirelessly to avoid. Bheki Nxumalo, Eskom’s generation group executive, stated that the power generating system’s poor performance and frequent plant breakdowns will continue throughout the winter months, necessitating continued implementation of load shedding.
To understand the implications of each load shedding stage, it is helpful to examine their specific characteristics.
Stage 1 involves shedding up to 1000MW and includes three outages of two hours each over a four-day period.
Stage 2 requires shedding 2000MW and involves six outages over four days, either two hours at a time or four hours at a time over eight days.
Moving to Stage 3, up to 3000MW is shed, increasing the frequency of Stage 2 by 50%. This results in nine outages over four days, either two hours at a time or nine outages over eight days for four hours at a time.
Stage 4 involves shedding 4000MW, with 12 outages over four days for two hours each or 12 outages over eight days for four hours each.
At Stage 6, 6000MW is shed through up to two four-hour power cuts per day over a four-day period.
Stage 7 is similar to Stage 6, with an additional 1000MW shed.
Finally, Stage 8, the most severe, results in power outages for at least 12 hours per day. It requires shedding 8000MW and can involve up to six two-hour cuts or three four-hour cuts per day, depending on the area’s schedule.
Eskom has warned that stage 8 load shedding may be implemented during South Africa’s winter season if efforts to minimize unplanned losses are unsuccessful. The reduced generation capacity and frequent plant breakdowns pose significant challenges for maintaining a stable power supply. Eskom assures the public that while load shedding is necessary, they are working diligently to avoid a complete blackout.
Mboma Mboma