The African National Congress (ANC) has identified new political parties, community-based organizations, and independent candidates as the biggest threats it will face in the 2024 general election. The party believes that these new forums within the political space will contribute to the “cannibalizing” of existing parties, resulting in the increased fragmentation of the party system.
The ANC’s research shows that the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) are unlikely to grow beyond their current support. The party presented a coalition framework, which is the first of its kind for the governing party, at its most recent National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting. The decision to look into viable coalition models was taken at the ANC’s 55th national conference at Nasrec last year.
The framework outlines a 12-point plan of strategies and observations which explain the rules of engagement for dealing with coalitions. According to the framework document, while it is clear that the ANC is on the decline, it will remain the largest party. In the 2019 national elections, the governing party garnered 57.5% of the votes cast.
The EFF is growing dramatically but is now leveling off and reaching a ceiling. The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) declined drastically between the 2009 and 2014 elections but is now showing signs of resurrection in KwaZulu-Natal, at the expense of the ANC. The Freedom Front Plus is showing resilience and growing among Afrikaners, at the expense of the DA. The Good and Patriotic Alliance and community-based parties have been gaining ground in the colored communities across the country at the expense of both the ANC and DA.
The ANC’s coalition framework sets out rules for coalitions based on a common minimum program and shared values of stability, accountability, ethics, and integrity. The party that has won the most votes should lead the coalition in the municipalities, and executive positions should be allocated in proportion to the votes obtained by coalition partners.
A threshold should be introduced for representation in councils and executive committees, so that there is a degree of legitimacy with regard to what amount of electoral support qualifies a party or candidate to be part of councils and coalition governments. The law should be amended to ensure that public administration is insulated from coalition deal-making and bargaining and motions of no confidence.
Coalitions should be more transparent and accountable to people in their jurisdiction by giving quarterly reports and accounting to citizens on service delivery and milestones. Where no party has a clear majority, the executive system should be introduced using Section 12 notices. The ANC will prioritize working with parties, community-based organizations, service delivery forums, and independent candidates committed to stability, social justice, and ending apartheid colonialism in all forms.
The party will not form a coalition in any municipality for the sake of ganging up against other parties. The ANC will not preclude the possibility of working with any party in a coalition so long as it is in the public interest. There should be an independent dispute resolution mechanism established to deal with any disputes among coalition partners.
The third principle has already caused friction in the ranks of the governing party. On Tuesday, the ANC’s Johannesburg caucus refused to toe the party line and vote in Al Jama-ah member Kabelo Gwandanda as executive mayor over its regional chair Dada Morero, leading to the adjournment of the council sitting until Friday.
Al Jama-ah has three seats in Johannesburg while the ANC has 91 councillors. The ANC’s research shows that new political parties, community-based organizations, and independent candidates are gaining seats in municipalities, provincial legislature, and national parliament, contributing to the fragmentation of the party system. The advent of independent candidates in the 2024 elections may increase cannibalization and fragmentation of provincial and national government.
Mboma Mboma